Mere Words

As of Tuesday March 18, 2008 the race for the Democratic presidential race is as follows*:

Senator Barack Obama: 1613 total delegates, 1404 Pledged, 209 super delegates. Popular votes: 13,230,638

Senator Hillary Clinton: 1493 total delegates, 1249 Pledged, 244 super delegates. Popular votes: 12,518, 824

Pledged delegates are those elected in primaries or caucuses pledged to vote for a candidate. Super delegates are party leaders who are free to chose whichever candidate they want to.

The magic number to win the nomination is 2,024 delegates

There are 907 delegates outstanding, 566 pledged delegates, and 341 super delegates.

What does all this mean?

Well, Obama is the clear front-runner leading Hillary by 120 total delegates. His path to the nomination will be much easier than Hillary’s. To secure the nomination, Barack only needs to win 412 of the total remaining delegates, or 45%. Hillary would need to win by a margin of 56% or greater.

Total delegates do not really tell the whole story. Many party leaders, including Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, say that the super delegates should and will follow the will of the voters. This means whichever candidate has a majority of the pledged delegates going into the Democratic convention will be the candidate the super delegates throw their support behind.

In that case, what does Clinton have to do to take the lead in pledged delegates?

As of 3/18 Barack will have a 155 pledged delegate lead going into the Pennsylvania primary. With only 566 pledged delegates to be assigned in the 9 remaining primaries and caucuses, Senator Clinton has an uphill battle if she plans to take the lead. To take a majority, Hillary would need to win each state by a 64% margin. Hillary has only won one state with a 60% margin or better, Arkansas, which she won 70-30. She has only won 6 primaries by a margin of 55% or better**. Clearly, without a major shift Hillary will not be able to end the primary season with more pledged delegates than Obama.

Thus, the only likely way Hillary Clinton could win the nomination would be by the super delegates going against the will of the people. Barack Obama will have won more states, more popular votes, and more pledged delegates.

So, what effect will Senator Clinton’s remaining in the race have on the general election in November against John McCain?

There are two potential scenarios. Either Hillary secures the nomination via a coup by the super delegates, or Hillary remains in the race until the convention but Obama still wins.

In the first scenario, the super delegates will have snubbed the millions of voters who supported Obama. Many of his core supporters have said they would not vote or would vote for John McCain in the general election if Obama lost the nomination due to super delegates.

The feeling many primary voters would have would be extremely similar to that of Gore supporters in 2000 when he won the popular vote but lost the general election. They would feel disenfranchised and disgusted with the entire system. Many of Obama’s supporters are first time voters who are drawn to the polls by his call for change.

In the second scenario, Obama will still win the nomination after the weeks of campaigning leading up the Democratic National Convention in August. Instead of focusing on Senator John McCain and winning the general election, Obama will have to combat attacks from Hillary. Instead of allowing Obama the time to solidify support within his party, as McCain is doing now, Clinton will continue to divide the party between both candidates. Come November, Obama will be a weaker candidate due to being sniped at from all sides. With the last couple elections being won by a slim majority of votes in swing states like Florida, the longer the the race drags on, the harder for a Democratic win in December.

No matter which way you look at it, Hillary remaining in the race will be bad for the Democratic Party. If she truly wanted a Democrat in office next January, she would recognize the writing on the wall and drop out of the race. If she truly desired an opportunity to change our health care system, find an exit strategy for Iraq, and fix our ailing economy, she would return to the Senate as a powerful leader and force for change.

*All the math does not include Florida or Michigan since currently there is no plan in place to have their delegates count.

** Those primaries are: Massachusets (56%), New York (57%), Oklahoma (55%), Rhode Island (58%), and American Samoa (57%).