Mere Words

In the last few days new polls have surfaced for the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania. In each one, Barack Obama has closed the gap between Hillary Clinton and himself since the last polling date. Here are the numbers:

From Public Policy Polling 3/31-4/1. Likely voters. Margin of Error 2.8%. (3/15-3/16 results)

Senator Hillary Clinton: 43% (56%)

Senator Barack Obama: 45% (30%)

From Rasmussen. 3/31. Likely voters. Margin of error 4%. (3/24 results)

Senator Hillary Clinton: 47% (49%)

Senator Barack Obama: 42% (39%)

From Survey USA. 4/1. Likely voters. Margin of error 4%. (3/11 results)

Senator Hillary Clinton: 53% (55%)

Senator Barack Obama: 41% (36%)

Wow! In each poll Obama has drawn closer to Hillary, even pulling ahead in the PPP poll. I think the best way to get an idea of where the primary race stands is to average each polls results in to one giant uber poll:

Mere Words Poll of Polls. 4/1. Margin of error 4%. (Past result).

Clinton: 48% (53%)

Obama: 43% (35%)

Obama has drawn within 5 percentage points of Clinton, nearly within the margin of error. Far from being the key to Hillary’s nomination hopes, it may be the last nail her coffin. With three weeks left of campaigning and Barack outspending Hillary 4-1, its not a radical thought to expect the gap to close even further.

Even if these percentages hold true (giving Hillary 4% of the undecideds and Obama 5%) Hillary would only gain 82 delegates to Obama’s 76. A 6 delegate net gain for Hillary would leave Obama still 120 delegates up, a nearly insurmountable lead with Obama leading by 15% or better in North Carolina.

Even Bill Clinton has said Hillary needs to win, and win big in Pennsylvania to stay in the race.