Mere Words

With Barack Obama closing in on the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the nomination, Hillary Clinton has been forced to her last best hope for keeping her chances alive, moving the goalposts. She now claims that 2,210 delegates are needed to secure the nomination, saying the current number is invalid because it doesn’t include Michigan and Florida. She does this to try to combat the people stating the obvious, that Hillary winning is extremely unlikely.

However, what Hillary neglects to mention is even if she gets everything she wants, the path to victory is still very unlikely. Just for the sake of argument, lets imagine Hillary wins 60% of the delegates in the three remaining primaries, and has Michigan and Florida’s delegates seated according to the elections currently not sanctioned by the DNC. Keep in mind this scenario is probably unlikely.

Current race status:

Senator Clinton: 1,780 delegates

Senator Obama: 1,962 delegates

Pledged delegates remaining (from primaries, not including Fl and Mi): 86 delegates.

Pledged delegates from Michigan and Florida: 366

So, if Clinton exceeds expectations and wins 60% of the remaining pledged delegates, where would the race be then?

Senator Clinton: 1,832 delegates (377 from securing nomination)

Senator Obama: 1,996 (213 from securing nomination)

Obama still retains a near insurmountable lead.

What if the Michigan and Florida delegates get seated in direct proportion to the disputed elections*? This example also includes superdelegates from those states who have already endorsed as well. In this highly unlikely scenario, could Hillary close the gap?

*Uncommitted votes from Michigan and Edwards delegates going to Obama*

Senator Clinton:

2,025 total delegates

1,731.5 pledged

293.5 superdelegates

Still 185 delegates away from securing the nomination.

Senator Obama:

2,116 total delegates

1832.5 pledged

315.5 supers

Only 94 delegates away from the nomination.

Outstanding supers: 242

So where does Senator Clinton’s best case scenario leave her? Trailing by nearly 100 delegates in the total count. Trailing in the super delegate count. Obama holds the majority of pledged delegates. For Hillary to secure the nomination she would need to win nearly 76% of the remaining superdelegates. Given that multiple superdelegates have said they would support the winner of the pledged delegate count, this seems like a near impossible task for Hillary.

Once again, the math supports what most of us have known since February. Senator Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for president.

Senator John McCain’s chief media adviser is stepping down rather than work against Senator Obama in the fall. Mark McKinnon said “I just don’t want to work against an Obama candidacy” and that electing Obama would “would send a great message to the country and the world”. He said he would still remain a supporter of McCain’s candidacy.

Wow. When McCain’s own staffers recognize the hope that Obama brings America and refuse to work against it, you know Barack’s movement is starting to mean something.

According to CNN.com, Senator Ted Kennedy, the Senate’s second most senior member, was diagnosed with a brain tumor today after going to the hospital due to an apparent seizure.

Our thoughts and prayers go out to him and his family.

As you all know, today is a critical day in the Democratic Primary with Kentucky and Oregon voting. Senator Barack Obama should secure a majority of pledged delegates this evening. 103 delegates are at stake, 51 in Kentucky and 52 in Oregon.

My predictions:

Kentucky:

Senator Clinton: 64.5%

Senator Obama: 30.5%

UPDATE… With 100% of the precincts reporting, my prediction is within a half of a percent.

Oregon:

Senator Obama: 59%

Senator Clinton: 41%

UPDATE… With 100% in, 2% off, not to shabby!

Actual results (will update as results come in):

Kentucky (100% reporting):

Senator Obama: 30% 209,771 votes

Senator Clinton: 65% 459,145 votes

Oregon (100% reporting):

Senator Obama: 58% 331,138 votes

Senator Clinton: 42% 236,470

John McCain speaking to reporters about Obama’s national security experience:

“Senator Obama obviously has no national security experience, and therefore that’s reflected in his judgment on a number of those issues.”

What poor judgment would that be McSame? Would that be voting for the war in Iraq? Falling in lockstep with all of Bush’s failed policies in Iraq? Oh wait, thats not Senator Obama, that would be you Senator McCain.

This story out of Indiana underscores the ridiculousness of photo id requirements to vote:

About 12 Indiana nuns were turned away Tuesday from a polling place by a fellow bride of Christ because they didn’t have state or federal identification bearing a photograph.

Sister Julie McGuire said she was forced to turn away her fellow sisters at Saint Mary’s Convent in South Bend, across the street from the University of Notre Dame, because they had been told earlier that they would need such an ID to vote.

The nuns, all in their 80s or 90s, didn’t get one but came to the precinct anyway.

“One came down this morning, and she was 98, and she said, ‘I don’t want to go do that,’” Sister McGuire said. Some showed up with outdated passports. None of them drives.

They weren’t given provisional ballots because it would be impossible to get them to a motor vehicle branch and back in the 10-day time frame allotted by the law, Sister McGuire said. “You have to remember that some of these ladies don’t walk well. They’re in wheelchairs or on walkers or electric carts.”

Nonetheless, she said, the convent will make a “very concerted effort” to get proper identification for the nuns in time for the general election. “We’re going to take from now until November to get them out and get this done. You can’t do this like school kids on a bus,” she said. “I wish we could.”

Dick Cheney on Dubya’s presidency:

And when the history is written, it’ll be said that we lived in a safer country, and a more hopeful world, because George Bush was President of these United States.

All I can say is wow. With a 70% job disapproval rating, historians really are Bush’s last hope.