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Democratic Primary Delegate Math Update: The end is near…

May 21, 2008 By: Cameron Category: Democratic Primary No Comments →

 

With Barack Obama closing in on the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the nomination, Hillary Clinton has been forced to her last best hope for keeping her chances alive, moving the goalposts. She now claims that 2,210 delegates are needed to secure the nomination, saying the current number is invalid because it doesn’t include Michigan and Florida. She does this to try to combat the people stating the obvious, that Hillary winning is extremely unlikely.

However, what Hillary neglects to mention is even if she gets everything she wants, the path to victory is still very unlikely. Just for the sake of argument, lets imagine Hillary wins 60% of the delegates in the three remaining primaries, and has Michigan and Florida’s delegates seated according to the elections currently not sanctioned by the DNC. Keep in mind this scenario is probably unlikely.

 

Current race status:

Senator Clinton: 1,780 delegates

Senator Obama: 1,962 delegates

Pledged delegates remaining (from primaries, not including Fl and Mi): 86 delegates.

Pledged delegates from Michigan and Florida: 366

 

 

So, if Clinton exceeds expectations and wins 60% of the remaining pledged delegates, where would the race be then?

 

Senator Clinton: 1,832 delegates (377 from securing nomination)

Senator Obama: 1,996 (213 from securing nomination)

Obama still retains a near insurmountable lead.

 

 

What if the Michigan and Florida delegates get seated in direct proportion to the disputed elections*? This example also includes superdelegates from those states who have already endorsed as well. In this highly unlikely scenario, could Hillary close the gap?

*Uncommitted votes from Michigan and Edwards delegates going to Obama*

 

Senator Clinton:

2,025 total delegates

1,731.5 pledged

293.5 superdelegates

Still 185 delegates away from securing the nomination.

 

Senator Obama:

2,116 total delegates

1832.5 pledged

315.5 supers

Only 94 delegates away from the nomination.

Outstanding supers: 242

 

 

 

So where does Senator Clinton’s best case scenario leave her? Trailing by nearly 100 delegates in the total count. Trailing in the super delegate count. Obama holds the majority of pledged delegates. For Hillary to secure the nomination she would need to win nearly 76% of the remaining superdelegates. Given that multiple superdelegates have said they would support the winner of the pledged delegate count, this seems like a near impossible task for Hillary.

Once again, the math supports what most of us have known since February. Senator Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for president.

 

Kentucky and Oregon Democratic Primary Results

May 20, 2008 By: Cameron Category: Democratic Primary No Comments →

As you all know, today is a critical day in the Democratic Primary with Kentucky and Oregon voting. Senator Barack Obama should secure a majority of pledged delegates this evening. 103 delegates are at stake, 51 in Kentucky and 52 in Oregon.

 

My predictions:

Kentucky:

Senator Clinton: 64.5%

Senator Obama: 30.5%

UPDATE… With 100% of the precincts reporting, my prediction is within a half of a percent.

 

Oregon:

Senator Obama: 59%

Senator Clinton: 41%

UPDATE… With 100% in, 2% off, not to shabby!

 

 

Actual results (will update as results come in):

 

Kentucky (100% reporting):

Senator Obama: 30% 209,771 votes

Senator Clinton: 65% 459,145 votes

 

Oregon (100% reporting):

Senator Obama: 58% 331,138 votes

Senator Clinton: 42% 236,470

Nuns denied right to vote

May 06, 2008 By: Cameron Category: Democratic Primary, Election-2008 No Comments →

This story out of Indiana underscores the ridiculousness of photo id requirements to vote:

About 12 Indiana nuns were turned away Tuesday from a polling place by a fellow bride of Christ because they didn’t have state or federal identification bearing a photograph.

Sister Julie McGuire said she was forced to turn away her fellow sisters at Saint Mary’s Convent in South Bend, across the street from the University of Notre Dame, because they had been told earlier that they would need such an ID to vote.

The nuns, all in their 80s or 90s, didn’t get one but came to the precinct anyway.

“One came down this morning, and she was 98, and she said, ‘I don’t want to go do that,’” Sister McGuire said. Some showed up with outdated passports. None of them drives.

They weren’t given provisional ballots because it would be impossible to get them to a motor vehicle branch and back in the 10-day time frame allotted by the law, Sister McGuire said. “You have to remember that some of these ladies don’t walk well. They’re in wheelchairs or on walkers or electric carts.”

Nonetheless, she said, the convent will make a “very concerted effort” to get proper identification for the nuns in time for the general election. “We’re going to take from now until November to get them out and get this done. You can’t do this like school kids on a bus,” she said. “I wish we could.”

Liveblogging the 4/16 Democratic Debate in Pennsylvania

April 16, 2008 By: Cameron Category: Democratic Primary, Election-2008 2 Comments →

Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton are meeting in their first debate in 6 weeks. This is a critical debate just weeks before the Pennsylvania primary.

7:02: The debate begins with Charlie Gibson introducing Obama and Clinton. Funny anecdote about the race being in the 15th round of a 10 rounder.

7:03: Opening statements.

Obama: “I’ve been struck by the frustration of Pennsylvanians with jobs, healthcare, and the special interests dominating in Washington. This election offers us a chance to change that.”

He leads off reiterating his usual talking points, as expected. Great job heading off the question about his comments about Pennsylvanians being “bitter”, explaining their frustration.

Clinton: “I’m running because I know we can meet the challenges of today, to fulfill the dreams set out by our forefathers.”

More of the same from Clinton.

7:08: First question by Charlie Gibson, “…with such broad support from very select group, why not fight to the end, but agree whoever loses will be VP?”

We’re tired of this question Charlie, its just not going to happen. Obama dodges the question, saying its premature, but says we will have a unified party in August.

Clinton says: “I will do whatever it takes to make sure one of us will be President in January” but hedges at making a promise of Obama as her VP.

7:11: Charlie asks about Obama’s bitter comment, “bitter voters cling to their guns and religion”

Obama: I understand why people were offended, and its not the first time I misspoke, nor will it be the last. The point I was making was that when people feel like Washington’s not listening to them… when all they are seeing false promises…. then they vote on issues that they can count on, what is always true, religion, gun rights…. when the focus is on those issues the important economic and social issues get shuffled under the mat…. I’m running to help end these frustrations, to make true on the promises of Americas future.

Clinton: I’m the granddaughter of a factory worker, of a deeply religious man. I don’t think people cling to guns and religion when Washington isn’t listening, “that’s a fundamental misunderstanding of their views”.

7:18: Question to Clinton: Can Obama win?

Clinton: Yes, but I think I can do it better.

Obama: In the last few days, Clinton has been calling me elitist, condescending, and patronizing. How can I patronize people of faith when I’m a man of faith? I supported Clinton when she was called elitist for responding to concerns that she shouldn’t be so active in her husbands presidency saying “should I be home baking cookies?”. I think she learned the wrong lesson, because now she’s using the same tactics as the conservatives that attacked her then.

Clinton: I was talking about his remarks, not amount the man. Everyone else was saying it, not just me….typical speech about changing the country…

7:23: Charlie, why did you take so long to denounce your pastor even though you removed from doing your invocation a year ago?

Obama reiterates the same points he made on his excellent speech on race.

Clinton: I would have left after hearing his comments on 9/11. They were terrible and disgusting, and no amount of good would make me stay.

Obama: I didn’t hear about them until much later, and wasn’t there that day. I myself take offense. The church extends beyond the pastor, it is a community much bigger than one man.

George: Obama, do you think that Reverend Wright loves America as much as you do, and what would you do when they play these videos if you are President?

Obama: If it wasn’t this, it’d be something else. If Clinton was President, videos would be played about her. I have faith in the American people, that when they judge my character and my plan for America they will stay behind me. Americans are smarter than to get caught up in these distractions, comments I didn’t make, comments I disowned. Wright is a former Marine, I know he loves America, but that he is upset over all the injustice he’s seen in his long life.

7:32: George: Hillary, polls show 6/10 voters don’t think you are trustworthy, what do you have to say about this and the Bosnian sniper issue?

Clinton: I’m not dumb. I misspoke, I apologized, and I made a mistake. I am proud of my trip to Bosnia, it was a war zone, things were dangerous, and I know I’ve misrepresented things accidentally on a couple occasions. But I do stand by my experience that will make me ready on Day 1.

7:35: George: Obama, Do you think Clinton has been truthful?

Obama: Both of us are working as hard as we can to deliver a message to the American people, but being recorded 24/7 we are bound to make some mistakes. I think Senator Clinton is allowed to make some from time to time. I know I have. But we can’t get caught up in these distractions, we must remember we are a critical crossroads in our history, we must focus on the important issues facing us today, instead of small errors.

Barack hits a homerun with his response to this question. Given an opportunity to attack Hillary, he decides to be a unifier, not a divider. He transcends the petty politics and lives up to the politics of hope by giving Hillary a pass, while at the same time insinuating the same courtesy should be done to him. 

7:38: Obama, Do you believe in the American flag?

Obama: I have long revered and respected the flag. I believe in showing my patriotism through my service, my support of veterans. Sometimes small things like flag pins become a substitute for true patriotism, and that was the point I was trying to make. This idea that I’m not a patriot is a “manufactured issue” in no other nation on Earth could someone with my background have these opportunities I have had.

Does Obama believe in the American flag? I mean, what the hell? After months, this is what ABC wants to talk about? At nearly 50 minutes in we have yet to have a question about anything substantive.  No questions on Iraq or the failing economy, the two most important issues facing our country today. So far the only winner of the debate has been John McCain.

7:52: Question to Clinton: How can you promise to bring the troops home without knowing the situation on the ground in January?

Clinton: I will begin to bring the troops home as soon as I am elected President. I believe it is in the best interest of voters, America, and even the Iraqis. Until we end the “blank check given to the Iraqis” they will not take responsibility for their security. I’m sure that our staying in Iraq is a mistake. It is no way to maintain our standing in the world.

Obama: In 16 months after I am elected we will be out of Iraq. It is not the generals job to set the mission, it is the Commander in Chief’s. It is the Generals and troops job to execute that mission. I will take their views under advisement in regards to policy, but as to the mission the buck stops with the President.

8: 05: George: John McCain says you will raise taxes on the middle class and the rich, will you pledge not to raise taxes on the middle class?

Clinton: Even if the economy is weak I will roll back Bush’s tax cuts on those making over $250k. I will not raise takes on those making less. I actually have a plan to offer 100 billion dollars in tax cuts for the middle class.

Obama: I would pledge not to raise taxes on the middle class as well. I would roll back the payroll tax on those making less than 75k, and would roll back taxes on senior citizens social security payments. This will boost our struggling economy. I will fund this by closing tax loopholes for corporations sending jobs overseas, and rolling back Bush’s tax cuts on the top 1%.

I want a fair tax system that allows us to invest in our schools and invest in health care. You can’t take out a credit card, you must pay as you go. You don’t raise taxes without closing other loopholes or finding revenue elsewhere. You don’t increase spending without paying for it or cutting elsewhere.

8:19: COMMERCIAL BREAK

Thus far in the debate we’ve seen more of the same from the candidates. They’ve been reiterating the same talking points we’ve heard for the last year and a half. Few real issues of contention have come up between the candidates, since the moderators are so focused on the non-issues of the candidates few slipups. Obama’s handling of the recent issues (the bitter comments, the Bosnian snipers, etc.) was superb. Given the opportunity to attack Hillary  on her trustworthiness, instead he gave her a pass because they all make mistakes and knows Senator Clinton is a good woman. Given the same opportunity regarding Obama, Clinton was not so passive, attacking Obama both on his former pastors and his “bitter” comments. Just more and more evidence why Clinton will do anything to become President, even if it means destroying Obama and helping the Republicans win in November.

8:24: Question on guns… In the past you’ve been in strong support of regulations on guns, and now you don’t talk about that on the campaign trail. Why?

Clinton: I will work to reinstate the assault weapons ban, work to lower crime in our streets. I will give police departments the tools they need to track illegal guns. I believe we can balance the rights of the gun owners and the need to keep those guns out of the wrong hands.

Obama: I believe in the right to bear arms, but governments have a right to restrain those rights. I believe we can offer common sense approaches to prevent criminals from using the guns on the streets. We can track them. We must get beyond the politics of this issue and figure out what is working.

Neither candidate will flat out say if they favor licensing and registration of guns… They are very careful not to offend Pennsylvania voters.

8:33: How would you change affirmative action?

Obama: I think the basic principle is that we make sure we are providing ladders of opportunity to all American youths. However, we must take these issues in context. An affluent black child, like my daughters, should not get preference over a poor white child. I think we must look at the whole person. We can’t have quotas.

Clinton: We have a real gap in achievement and income in Americans. I would invest in our young people, and give the opportunity to go to college, I would change No Child Left Behind… Etc…

8:36: What will you do about gas prices?

Clinton: I would investigate the situation, and stop market speculation and people raising prices unfairly. I would also quit putting gas in the Strategic Oil Reserve and release some oil to drive prices down. I would tax large oil corporations.

Obama: Decade after decade we talk about reducing dependence on foreign oil, but nothing ever happens. I agree with Clinton, we must investigate market manipulation, put a windfall tax on oil companies, invest in alternative energy, and raise fuel effiency standards on cars.

8:46: The final question: The nomination will probably come down to the superdelegates, how will you make the case as to why you are the better candidate?

Clinton: We need a fighter back in the White House. I have a plan to fight the special interests, take the money away from the special interests and give it back to the middle class. I’ve spent a lifetime trying to bring people up and to give our children the future they deserve. Generals have endorsed me and I will lead us out of Iraq. I will fix this struggling economy. I have demonstrated over my lifetime that you can count on me.

Obama: We are at our defining moment in our history. The nation is at war, our planet is in peril, our economy is failing, and citizens have lost faith in their government. Americans are tired of the politics of tearing people down, but want a politics that bring the people up. I’ve refused money from lobbyists and special interests. The American people have responded to this message of hope, and I’ve brought new voters into the process. I would tell the superdelegates we need a new coalition to address the issues and have a real chance at changing Washington. I am the man for the job.

THUNDEROUS APPLAUSE FROM THE CROWD.

Thats the end of the democratic debate in Pennsylvania. Who won? Like most of the debates thus far, it was extremely difficult for either candidate to stand out. After the terrible moderation refusing to ask the questions Americans really care about until an hour into the debate, I think I would have to say John McCain was the victor.

New Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Polls

April 03, 2008 By: Cameron Category: Democratic Primary 1 Comment →

In the last few days new polls have surfaced for the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania. In each one, Barack Obama has closed the gap between Hillary Clinton and himself since the last polling date. Here are the numbers:

From Public Policy Polling 3/31-4/1. Likely voters. Margin of Error 2.8%. (3/15-3/16 results)

Senator Hillary Clinton: 43% (56%)

Senator Barack Obama: 45% (30%)

From Rasmussen. 3/31. Likely voters. Margin of error 4%. (3/24 results)

Senator Hillary Clinton: 47% (49%)

Senator Barack Obama: 42% (39%)

From Survey USA. 4/1. Likely voters. Margin of error 4%. (3/11 results)

Senator Hillary Clinton: 53% (55%)

Senator Barack Obama: 41% (36%)

Wow! In each poll Obama has drawn closer to Hillary, even pulling ahead in the PPP poll. I think the best way to get an idea of where the primary race stands is to average each polls results in to one giant uber poll:

Mere Words Poll of Polls. 4/1. Margin of error 4%. (Past result).

Clinton: 48% (53%)

Obama: 43% (35%)

Obama has drawn within 5 percentage points of Clinton, nearly within the margin of error. Far from being the key to Hillary’s nomination hopes, it may be the last nail her coffin. With three weeks left of campaigning and Barack outspending Hillary 4-1, its not a radical thought to expect the gap to close even further.

Even if these percentages hold true (giving Hillary 4% of the undecideds and Obama 5%) Hillary would only gain 82 delegates to Obama’s 76. A 6 delegate net gain for Hillary would leave Obama still 120 delegates up, a nearly insurmountable lead with Obama leading by 15% or better in North Carolina.

Even Bill Clinton has said Hillary needs to win, and win big in Pennsylvania to stay in the race.

 

Obama campaign raises $40 million in March

April 03, 2008 By: Cameron Category: Democratic Primary, Election-2008 No Comments →

Senator Barack Obama’s campaign announced this morning that he raised over 40 million dollars during the month of March. This is a simply staggering number this late in the race. The Clinton campaign is expected to have raised half that amount at around 20 million dollars.

Thus far in Pennsylvania Barack has outspent Hillary nearly 4-1, and with this fundraising prowess he will be able to continue to do so. With recent polls narrowing Senator Clinton’s lead, this will give Senator Obama a much needed edge in this very important primary.

The Obama campaign’s statistics:

Total raised in March: More than $40 million

Contributors in March: More than 442,000

First-time contributors in March: More than 218,000

Average contribution: $96

Total contributors to date: More than 1,276,000

Barack Obama, Bowling for votes?

April 02, 2008 By: Cameron Category: Democratic Primary, Election-2008 No Comments →

Obama Bowling

Senator Barack Obama went bowling over the weekend in order to “strike” a new chord with voters in the Pennsylvania primary. This is just one event in a recent trend of small face to face campaign events as compared to the typical “rock star” rallies he usually holds.  He managed an atrocious score of 37 pins, doubled by the local homemaker Roxanne Hart who joined him on the lanes. At one point an 8 year old gave him some sage advice: “Look at the pins when you throw the ball.” She ended up beating him as well.

Graceful in his defeat, the presidential hopeful quipped that his economic plan was much better than his bowling. A bystander yelled out: “It has to be.”

If you are an Obama supporter, you should hope he doesn’t accept Hillary Clinton’s challenge to a winner take all bowl off for the Democratic nomination. It looks like that is the only way she can win now…

Pennsylvania Primary Update

April 01, 2008 By: Cameron Category: Democratic Primary No Comments →

With just about 3 weeks left until the Pennsylvania Primary, Barack Obama is closing the gap between himself and Hillary Clinton. A recent poll by Rasmussen shows:

Who do you plan on voting for in the Democratic Primary?

Clinton: 47%

Obama: 42%

Not sure: 11%

The survey was conducted among 730 randomly selected likely Democratic primary voters. Its margin of error was +-3%.

A week ago, Barack Obama was down by ten points, and on 3/13 he was down by 13 points. Clearly Obama is gaining ground and has lived through the Pastor Wright controversy. While he probably won’t win in Pennsylvania, if he can keep the vote close he’ll deal a crushing blow to the Clinton campaign. They need a big delegate boost and huge popular vote gains to continue taking their argument to the superdelegates that she should be the nominee.

As a side note, Obama is leading 54% to Clinton’s 36% in North Carolina. With a close Pennsylvania vote, this will likely erase any gains by Hillary in Pennsylvania.

Clinton campaign dodging debates

March 25, 2008 By: Cameron Category: Democratic Primary, Election-2008 No Comments →

The Mersman Political Blog has an excellent post today about the Clinton campaign’s continued hypocrisy:

Hillary Clinton railed Barack Obama for not agreeing to a debate in Wisconsin. Guess who has not yet agreed to a April 19th debate in North Carolina? Senator Clinton.

Barack Obama has accepted both invitations to the April 16th debate in Pennsylvania and the April 19th debate in North Carolina.

Senator Clinton ran two television spots in Wisconsin accusing Obama of not wanting to debate the issues with her in that state. Clinton at that time was desperate to get on the stage and debate Obama because she believed she had an advantage in that setting.

Obama has stepped up his game when it comes to debates. In Texas and Ohio, Obama was relaxed, cool, and articulate. Obama showed in the last two debates that Hillary’s debating advantage had disappeared.

Obama’s confidence as a debater may very well be the reason that he has agreed to debate and she has not. Obama and his campaign feel that a debate will not do any damage to him and may help him.

Howard Wolfson of the Clinton campaign said, “I am quite confident that there will be additional debates and that we will work with networks and the Obama campaign to figure out the appropriate location and venue and media outlet.”

The Clinton campaign seems to be waiting to make sure that additional debates will not hurt their candidate as she gets closer to Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Wolfson’s statement is meant to buy time. The location has been set, the media outlet is set for CBS, and a date has been set for April 19th.

Clinton’s history during this campaign has shown that hypocrisy is no obstacle. Senator Clinton and her campaign will do anything in order to win. In Wisconsin that may mean attacking Obama for not debating her and in North Carolina that may mean ducking him.

Hillary continues to live in her own little world. She “misremembers” the fact that she did not land under sniper fire in Bosnia and claims she “misspoke” on 4 separate occasions when she stated that she did land under sniper fire. She calls Obama out for dodging debates while when she does its a different situation. When campaigning in New Hampshire, she agreed that Florida and Michigan shouldn’t count but now changes her mind when she needs them to win. The list of hypocrisies and doubletalk goes on and on…..

Hillary is determined to get the nomination, no matter who gets in her way, and no matter the damage it does to the Democrats in November.

John McCain, the flip flopper Part 1: Taxes

March 23, 2008 By: Cameron Category: Bush Presidency, Democratic Primary, Election-2008 2 Comments →

In 2001, John McCain was one of only two Republicans who voted against Bush’s tax cuts saying:

“We had an opportunity to provide much more tax relief to millions of hard-working Americans. . . . I cannot in good conscience support a tax cut in which so many of the benefits go to the most fortunate among us, at the expense of middle-class Americans who most need tax relief.”

-Senate floor statement before vote on May 26, 2001

In 2003, Senator McCain voted against renewing the tax cuts saying:

“…low and middle-income Americans are paying a significantly larger amount of their income in taxes. I’d like to see them get the bulk of the relief.”

- NBC’s “Today” January 7, 2003

Both times, McCain got it right. He chose his principles and what was best for the American people over party loyalty. George Bush’s tax cuts gave the majority of their benefits to the top 1%, who did not need or ask for the benefits. By voting against the tax cuts, John McCain made a statement that earned him the support of many independents and Democrats. This and other independent actions even got his named tossed around as a potential vice presidential nominee for John Kerry in 2004.

Why then did Senator McCain vote in 2006 to extend these tax cuts? Why does he continue his support to make them permanent today? He claims he did so because ending the cuts now would amount to a tax increase, which he opposes. This is not as reasonable as he would make it seem. If McCain is worried about the effect on our economy by raising taxes by repealing the cuts, he would support a plan instead of revamping them. He could close tax loopholes and switch the benefits from the top 1% to the lower and middle classes who truly need it.

Instead, I think John McCain had political motivations with this change in his stance on tax cuts. Since 2006, (when his opinion changed) he has been planning his bid for the Republican nomination. He has spent this time attempting to consolidate his support within the Republican base and change the view of him being a maverick. Thus, it would be critical to have a more party-accepted stance on the tax cuts which have such strong support within the party.

John McCain has flip flopped on taxes in a way that was politically expedient for him. If flip flopping was enough to hurt John Kerry’s presidential bid, will it do the same for McCain?