With Barack Obama closing in on the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the nomination, Hillary Clinton has been forced to her last best hope for keeping her chances alive, moving the goalposts. She now claims that 2,210 delegates are needed to secure the nomination, saying the current number is invalid because it doesn’t include Michigan and Florida. She does this to try to combat the people stating the obvious, that Hillary winning is extremely unlikely.

However, what Hillary neglects to mention is even if she gets everything she wants, the path to victory is still very unlikely. Just for the sake of argument, lets imagine Hillary wins 60% of the delegates in the three remaining primaries, and has Michigan and Florida’s delegates seated according to the elections currently not sanctioned by the DNC. Keep in mind this scenario is probably unlikely.

Current race status:

Senator Clinton: 1,780 delegates

Senator Obama: 1,962 delegates

Pledged delegates remaining (from primaries, not including Fl and Mi): 86 delegates.

Pledged delegates from Michigan and Florida: 366

So, if Clinton exceeds expectations and wins 60% of the remaining pledged delegates, where would the race be then?

Senator Clinton: 1,832 delegates (377 from securing nomination)

Senator Obama: 1,996 (213 from securing nomination)

Obama still retains a near insurmountable lead.

What if the Michigan and Florida delegates get seated in direct proportion to the disputed elections*? This example also includes superdelegates from those states who have already endorsed as well. In this highly unlikely scenario, could Hillary close the gap?

*Uncommitted votes from Michigan and Edwards delegates going to Obama*

Senator Clinton:

2,025 total delegates

1,731.5 pledged

293.5 superdelegates

Still 185 delegates away from securing the nomination.

Senator Obama:

2,116 total delegates

1832.5 pledged

315.5 supers

Only 94 delegates away from the nomination.

Outstanding supers: 242

So where does Senator Clinton’s best case scenario leave her? Trailing by nearly 100 delegates in the total count. Trailing in the super delegate count. Obama holds the majority of pledged delegates. For Hillary to secure the nomination she would need to win nearly 76% of the remaining superdelegates. Given that multiple superdelegates have said they would support the winner of the pledged delegate count, this seems like a near impossible task for Hillary.

Once again, the math supports what most of us have known since February. Senator Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for president.

Senator John McCain’s chief media adviser is stepping down rather than work against Senator Obama in the fall. Mark McKinnon said “I just don’t want to work against an Obama candidacy” and that electing Obama would “would send a great message to the country and the world”. He said he would still remain a supporter of McCain’s candidacy.

Wow. When McCain’s own staffers recognize the hope that Obama brings America and refuse to work against it, you know Barack’s movement is starting to mean something.

According to CNN.com, Senator Ted Kennedy, the Senate’s second most senior member, was diagnosed with a brain tumor today after going to the hospital due to an apparent seizure.

Our thoughts and prayers go out to him and his family.

As you all know, today is a critical day in the Democratic Primary with Kentucky and Oregon voting. Senator Barack Obama should secure a majority of pledged delegates this evening. 103 delegates are at stake, 51 in Kentucky and 52 in Oregon.

My predictions:

Kentucky:

Senator Clinton: 64.5%

Senator Obama: 30.5%

UPDATE… With 100% of the precincts reporting, my prediction is within a half of a percent.

Oregon:

Senator Obama: 59%

Senator Clinton: 41%

UPDATE… With 100% in, 2% off, not to shabby!

Actual results (will update as results come in):

Kentucky (100% reporting):

Senator Obama: 30% 209,771 votes

Senator Clinton: 65% 459,145 votes

Oregon (100% reporting):

Senator Obama: 58% 331,138 votes

Senator Clinton: 42% 236,470

John McCain speaking to reporters about Obama’s national security experience:

“Senator Obama obviously has no national security experience, and therefore that’s reflected in his judgment on a number of those issues.”

What poor judgment would that be McSame? Would that be voting for the war in Iraq? Falling in lockstep with all of Bush’s failed policies in Iraq? Oh wait, thats not Senator Obama, that would be you Senator McCain.

This story out of Indiana underscores the ridiculousness of photo id requirements to vote:

About 12 Indiana nuns were turned away Tuesday from a polling place by a fellow bride of Christ because they didn’t have state or federal identification bearing a photograph.

Sister Julie McGuire said she was forced to turn away her fellow sisters at Saint Mary’s Convent in South Bend, across the street from the University of Notre Dame, because they had been told earlier that they would need such an ID to vote.

The nuns, all in their 80s or 90s, didn’t get one but came to the precinct anyway.

“One came down this morning, and she was 98, and she said, ‘I don’t want to go do that,’” Sister McGuire said. Some showed up with outdated passports. None of them drives.

They weren’t given provisional ballots because it would be impossible to get them to a motor vehicle branch and back in the 10-day time frame allotted by the law, Sister McGuire said. “You have to remember that some of these ladies don’t walk well. They’re in wheelchairs or on walkers or electric carts.”

Nonetheless, she said, the convent will make a “very concerted effort” to get proper identification for the nuns in time for the general election. “We’re going to take from now until November to get them out and get this done. You can’t do this like school kids on a bus,” she said. “I wish we could.”

Dick Cheney on Dubya’s presidency:

And when the history is written, it’ll be said that we lived in a safer country, and a more hopeful world, because George Bush was President of these United States.

All I can say is wow. With a 70% job disapproval rating, historians really are Bush’s last hope.

Welcome to Part 2 of my continuing series, John McCain, the flip flopper. Part 1 can be found here.

In 1999, McCain was in New Hampshire, campaigning for the GOP nomination as a moderate. He proclaimed himself a pro-life candidate, but told reporters that “in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade.” He explained that overturning Roe would force “women in America to have illegal and dangerous operations.” Now, campaigning for President as a conservative, McCain has flip flopped again. Once again, McCain had a stance based on his conscience, not on his party and comes down on the right side of the issue. Then, to appease the Republican base he changes his mind.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me ask one question about abortion. Then I want to turn to Iraq. You’re for a constitutional amendment banning abortion, with some exceptions for life and rape and incest.

MCCAIN: Rape, incest and the life of the mother. Yes.

STEPHANOPOULOS: So is President Bush, yet that hasn’t advanced in the six years he’s been in office. What are you going to do to advance a constitutional amendment that President Bush hasn’t done?

MCCAIN: I don’t think a constitutional amendment is probably going to take place, but I do believe that it’s very likely or possible that the Supreme Court should — could overturn Roe v. Wade, which would then return these decisions to the states, which I support…. Just as I believe that the issue of gay marriage should be decided by the states, so do I believe that we would be better off by having Roe v. Wade return to the states.

Don’t you miss the old McCain? He no longer qualifies to be called a “maverick” by the media, he’s now just your standard Republican, prepared to say anything to get elected.

Run, Hillary, run.

Run in Guam, run in North Carolina, run in Indiana. Run in each and every one of the nine contests that are left.

Then make some states do their contests over.

Should Barack Obama’s victory in Vermont really count? I don’t think Vermont is actually a state. I think it is technically a socialist republic. Have somebody check this out.

And Obama’s victory in Alaska? Are you kidding me? They let caribou vote in Alaska.

And do some other stuff that levels the playing field: Raise the voting age to 65 in all the remaining contests, for instance.

You do great with this group, Sen. Clinton. Younger people don’t really care about who becomes president anyway. All they want to do is go on this World Wide Interweb thing that they keep talking about.

And while you are at it, Senator, cap all salaries at $50,000 a year, take away all college degrees and give everybody a gun. The demographics are clear: That is your base vote.

Also, no men get to vote unless they have a note from a woman saying they are mentally competent. (Good luck with that!)

And, Sen. Clinton, keep portraying yourself as a sympathetic underdog. That works much better than when you were the inevitable overlord.

In Haverford, Pa., last Thursday, you told the crowd: “Just knock on the door and say, ‘You know, she’s really nice.’ Or you could say it another way: ‘She’s not as bad as you think.’”

It is a theme that worked in Pennsylvania and will work elsewhere. I can see the billboards now: “Hillary Clinton. Not as Bad as You Think.”

But do not give up the kitchen sink stuff, Senator. Make it a Good Hillary/Bad Hillary kind of campaign.

Good Hillary talks about the dreamy, gooey, feel-good stuff, like when, in your victory speech from Philadelphia Tuesday night, you said: “We are, in many ways, all on this journey together to create an America that embraces every last one of us. … I believe with all of my heart that together we will turn promises into action, words will become solutions, hope will become reality.”

But Bad Hillary can’t go away. You have to have the Hillary who says Obama is “elitist” and “demeaning,” and you have to keep running ads that portray him as the guy who won’t be able to protect us from the Great Depression, Pearl Harbor, long lines at the gas pump, Osama bin Laden or ringing telephones.

And speaking of Osama bin Laden, isn’t he a Muslim? And didn’t Bad Hillary say Obama was not a Muslim “as far as I know”? Keep up that subtle stuff. It is gold.

And then, of course, bribe the superdelegates. These are the 794 party insiders who have one standard for all their decisions in life: “What’s in it for me?”

So offer them something. You know how many interstate rest stops there are? They have to be named for somebody. And promise the holdouts that they will be appointed ambassador to Bermuda. It doesn’t matter that they all can’t be ambassador to Bermuda, because we don’t have an ambassador to Bermuda. (Say it was Bill’s idea.)

And even if you can’t get ahead in the delegate count, don’t stop running!

Go to the convention in Denver and chain yourself to the front door of the Pepsi Center and refuse to leave unless every resident of Florida and Michigan — not just the rogue delegates but all 26 million residents! — is seated inside and gets to cast a ballot for you.

What’s the worst that could happen? Howard Dean comes out and bites you on the ankle? Forget about it. I could carve a tougher guy out of tofu.

But most of all, Sen. Clinton, never give up, never surrender.

And remember: There’s always 2012.

Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton are meeting in their first debate in 6 weeks. This is a critical debate just weeks before the Pennsylvania primary.

7:02: The debate begins with Charlie Gibson introducing Obama and Clinton. Funny anecdote about the race being in the 15th round of a 10 rounder.

7:03: Opening statements.

Obama: “I’ve been struck by the frustration of Pennsylvanians with jobs, healthcare, and the special interests dominating in Washington. This election offers us a chance to change that.”

He leads off reiterating his usual talking points, as expected. Great job heading off the question about his comments about Pennsylvanians being “bitter”, explaining their frustration.

Clinton: “I’m running because I know we can meet the challenges of today, to fulfill the dreams set out by our forefathers.”

More of the same from Clinton.

7:08: First question by Charlie Gibson, “…with such broad support from very select group, why not fight to the end, but agree whoever loses will be VP?”

We’re tired of this question Charlie, its just not going to happen. Obama dodges the question, saying its premature, but says we will have a unified party in August.

Clinton says: “I will do whatever it takes to make sure one of us will be President in January” but hedges at making a promise of Obama as her VP.

7:11: Charlie asks about Obama’s bitter comment, “bitter voters cling to their guns and religion”

Obama: I understand why people were offended, and its not the first time I misspoke, nor will it be the last. The point I was making was that when people feel like Washington’s not listening to them… when all they are seeing false promises…. then they vote on issues that they can count on, what is always true, religion, gun rights…. when the focus is on those issues the important economic and social issues get shuffled under the mat…. I’m running to help end these frustrations, to make true on the promises of Americas future.

Clinton: I’m the granddaughter of a factory worker, of a deeply religious man. I don’t think people cling to guns and religion when Washington isn’t listening, “that’s a fundamental misunderstanding of their views”.

7:18: Question to Clinton: Can Obama win?

Clinton: Yes, but I think I can do it better.

Obama: In the last few days, Clinton has been calling me elitist, condescending, and patronizing. How can I patronize people of faith when I’m a man of faith? I supported Clinton when she was called elitist for responding to concerns that she shouldn’t be so active in her husbands presidency saying “should I be home baking cookies?”. I think she learned the wrong lesson, because now she’s using the same tactics as the conservatives that attacked her then.

Clinton: I was talking about his remarks, not amount the man. Everyone else was saying it, not just me….typical speech about changing the country…

7:23: Charlie, why did you take so long to denounce your pastor even though you removed from doing your invocation a year ago?

Obama reiterates the same points he made on his excellent speech on race.

Clinton: I would have left after hearing his comments on 9/11. They were terrible and disgusting, and no amount of good would make me stay.

Obama: I didn’t hear about them until much later, and wasn’t there that day. I myself take offense. The church extends beyond the pastor, it is a community much bigger than one man.

George: Obama, do you think that Reverend Wright loves America as much as you do, and what would you do when they play these videos if you are President?

Obama: If it wasn’t this, it’d be something else. If Clinton was President, videos would be played about her. I have faith in the American people, that when they judge my character and my plan for America they will stay behind me. Americans are smarter than to get caught up in these distractions, comments I didn’t make, comments I disowned. Wright is a former Marine, I know he loves America, but that he is upset over all the injustice he’s seen in his long life.

7:32: George: Hillary, polls show 6/10 voters don’t think you are trustworthy, what do you have to say about this and the Bosnian sniper issue?

Clinton: I’m not dumb. I misspoke, I apologized, and I made a mistake. I am proud of my trip to Bosnia, it was a war zone, things were dangerous, and I know I’ve misrepresented things accidentally on a couple occasions. But I do stand by my experience that will make me ready on Day 1.

7:35: George: Obama, Do you think Clinton has been truthful?

Obama: Both of us are working as hard as we can to deliver a message to the American people, but being recorded 24/7 we are bound to make some mistakes. I think Senator Clinton is allowed to make some from time to time. I know I have. But we can’t get caught up in these distractions, we must remember we are a critical crossroads in our history, we must focus on the important issues facing us today, instead of small errors.

Barack hits a homerun with his response to this question. Given an opportunity to attack Hillary, he decides to be a unifier, not a divider. He transcends the petty politics and lives up to the politics of hope by giving Hillary a pass, while at the same time insinuating the same courtesy should be done to him. 

7:38: Obama, Do you believe in the American flag?

Obama: I have long revered and respected the flag. I believe in showing my patriotism through my service, my support of veterans. Sometimes small things like flag pins become a substitute for true patriotism, and that was the point I was trying to make. This idea that I’m not a patriot is a “manufactured issue” in no other nation on Earth could someone with my background have these opportunities I have had.

Does Obama believe in the American flag? I mean, what the hell? After months, this is what ABC wants to talk about? At nearly 50 minutes in we have yet to have a question about anything substantive.  No questions on Iraq or the failing economy, the two most important issues facing our country today. So far the only winner of the debate has been John McCain.

7:52: Question to Clinton: How can you promise to bring the troops home without knowing the situation on the ground in January?

Clinton: I will begin to bring the troops home as soon as I am elected President. I believe it is in the best interest of voters, America, and even the Iraqis. Until we end the “blank check given to the Iraqis” they will not take responsibility for their security. I’m sure that our staying in Iraq is a mistake. It is no way to maintain our standing in the world.

Obama: In 16 months after I am elected we will be out of Iraq. It is not the generals job to set the mission, it is the Commander in Chief’s. It is the Generals and troops job to execute that mission. I will take their views under advisement in regards to policy, but as to the mission the buck stops with the President.

8: 05: George: John McCain says you will raise taxes on the middle class and the rich, will you pledge not to raise taxes on the middle class?

Clinton: Even if the economy is weak I will roll back Bush’s tax cuts on those making over $250k. I will not raise takes on those making less. I actually have a plan to offer 100 billion dollars in tax cuts for the middle class.

Obama: I would pledge not to raise taxes on the middle class as well. I would roll back the payroll tax on those making less than 75k, and would roll back taxes on senior citizens social security payments. This will boost our struggling economy. I will fund this by closing tax loopholes for corporations sending jobs overseas, and rolling back Bush’s tax cuts on the top 1%.

I want a fair tax system that allows us to invest in our schools and invest in health care. You can’t take out a credit card, you must pay as you go. You don’t raise taxes without closing other loopholes or finding revenue elsewhere. You don’t increase spending without paying for it or cutting elsewhere.

8:19: COMMERCIAL BREAK

Thus far in the debate we’ve seen more of the same from the candidates. They’ve been reiterating the same talking points we’ve heard for the last year and a half. Few real issues of contention have come up between the candidates, since the moderators are so focused on the non-issues of the candidates few slipups. Obama’s handling of the recent issues (the bitter comments, the Bosnian snipers, etc.) was superb. Given the opportunity to attack Hillary  on her trustworthiness, instead he gave her a pass because they all make mistakes and knows Senator Clinton is a good woman. Given the same opportunity regarding Obama, Clinton was not so passive, attacking Obama both on his former pastors and his “bitter” comments. Just more and more evidence why Clinton will do anything to become President, even if it means destroying Obama and helping the Republicans win in November.

8:24: Question on guns… In the past you’ve been in strong support of regulations on guns, and now you don’t talk about that on the campaign trail. Why?

Clinton: I will work to reinstate the assault weapons ban, work to lower crime in our streets. I will give police departments the tools they need to track illegal guns. I believe we can balance the rights of the gun owners and the need to keep those guns out of the wrong hands.

Obama: I believe in the right to bear arms, but governments have a right to restrain those rights. I believe we can offer common sense approaches to prevent criminals from using the guns on the streets. We can track them. We must get beyond the politics of this issue and figure out what is working.

Neither candidate will flat out say if they favor licensing and registration of guns… They are very careful not to offend Pennsylvania voters.

8:33: How would you change affirmative action?

Obama: I think the basic principle is that we make sure we are providing ladders of opportunity to all American youths. However, we must take these issues in context. An affluent black child, like my daughters, should not get preference over a poor white child. I think we must look at the whole person. We can’t have quotas.

Clinton: We have a real gap in achievement and income in Americans. I would invest in our young people, and give the opportunity to go to college, I would change No Child Left Behind… Etc…

8:36: What will you do about gas prices?

Clinton: I would investigate the situation, and stop market speculation and people raising prices unfairly. I would also quit putting gas in the Strategic Oil Reserve and release some oil to drive prices down. I would tax large oil corporations.

Obama: Decade after decade we talk about reducing dependence on foreign oil, but nothing ever happens. I agree with Clinton, we must investigate market manipulation, put a windfall tax on oil companies, invest in alternative energy, and raise fuel effiency standards on cars.

8:46: The final question: The nomination will probably come down to the superdelegates, how will you make the case as to why you are the better candidate?

Clinton: We need a fighter back in the White House. I have a plan to fight the special interests, take the money away from the special interests and give it back to the middle class. I’ve spent a lifetime trying to bring people up and to give our children the future they deserve. Generals have endorsed me and I will lead us out of Iraq. I will fix this struggling economy. I have demonstrated over my lifetime that you can count on me.

Obama: We are at our defining moment in our history. The nation is at war, our planet is in peril, our economy is failing, and citizens have lost faith in their government. Americans are tired of the politics of tearing people down, but want a politics that bring the people up. I’ve refused money from lobbyists and special interests. The American people have responded to this message of hope, and I’ve brought new voters into the process. I would tell the superdelegates we need a new coalition to address the issues and have a real chance at changing Washington. I am the man for the job.

THUNDEROUS APPLAUSE FROM THE CROWD.

Thats the end of the democratic debate in Pennsylvania. Who won? Like most of the debates thus far, it was extremely difficult for either candidate to stand out. After the terrible moderation refusing to ask the questions Americans really care about until an hour into the debate, I think I would have to say John McCain was the victor.